Highlights of This Month’s Edition
- Bilateral trade: In 2019, U.S. goods deficit with China decreased to $345.6 billion, the lowest since 2014; agricultural exports grew 700 percent year-on-year to the highest level in two years; in Q3 2019, U.S. surplus in service trade with China continued year-on-year decline.
- Bilateral policy issues: The United States and China reach a “Phase One” trade deal on January 15; the U.S. Department of the Treasury published final FIRRMA regulations that will take effect on February 13.
- Policy trends in China’s economy: Annual births in 2019 fall to an historic low, anticipating pressure on pension funds and labor market.
- Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s economy grew 6.1 percent year-on-year in 2019—the weakest annual pace since 1990—against a backdrop of external trade frictions and internal pressures on the financial system; growth in housing prices moderated toward the end of 2019, raising questions for many localities’ continued reliance on land sales for revenue; 14 local governments revise 2018 GDP growth figures downward; local government double down on land sales and debt issuance to offset revenue losses.
- In focus—the coronavirus outbreak: As the coronavirus outbreak continues to unfold, its global economic impact is causing disruption in sectors from tourism to oil to auto manufacturing; analysts believe China’s GDP growth could drop to between 2 and 5 percent in Q1 2020.