The Dalai Lama's Succession: Geopolitical Implications and Policy Recommendations for Congress
New Contracted Research Report
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) today released, “The Dalai Lama's Succession: Geopolitical Implications and Policy Recommendations for Congress,” a contracted research report prepared by Michael Schiffer of Sankhara Strategies, LLC. The report examines the succession of the 14th Dalai Lama as a geopolitical contest among China, India, and the United States and assesses the implications for U.S. policy and interests.
The report argues that the succession is already underway following the Dalai Lama’s July 2025 decision to vest exclusive succession authority in the Gaden Phodrang Trust, a process Beijing immediately rejected. With China expected to select its own candidate and potentially formalize a “One Dalai Lama” framework akin to its One China Principle, Beijing intends to contest the legitimacy of the Tibetan religious network and its chosen successor in every jurisdiction. The report identifies India as the center of gravity in the contest: the country where the Tibetan exile community and its institutions are based and where the Gaden Phodrang Trust’s succession process will need the political, territorial, and institutional space to proceed.
“The succession of the Dalai Lama is often viewed primarily as a matter of religious freedom and human rights, but the stakes extend well beyond those critical concerns,” said Chair Randy Schriver. “Beijing has made clear that it intends to control the succession process, making this a geopolitical contest with important implications for the United States and India. This report helps explain those strategic stakes and what Congress can do now to prepare for them.”
“His Holiness the Dalai Lama has already settled how his successor will be identified,” said Vice Chair Mike Kuiken. “Beijing is working to ensure New Delhi, Dharamshala, and Washington each misread the others. The United States, India, and other democracies should say plainly, and say it together, that they will recognize only the successor chosen through the religious process he authorized. That gets far harder once Beijing names a candidate.”
Drawing on Chinese- and English-language primary sources, Indian policy documents and parliamentary records, and interviews with former senior Indian officials, security analysts, and Tibetan political and civil society figures, the report identifies four key findings:
- India is the decisive variable, and it currently lacks the institutional means to act like one. There is no standing Tibet doctrine, no succession contingency plan, no interagency planning process, and no single governmental point of contact. The one Indian government post dedicated to the relationship has sat vacant since 2018.
- The Tibetan exile community in India has declined by more than 40 percent since 2009, from 110,228 to roughly 60,000–65,000, draining the institutional base on which a post-succession Tibetan political presence depends. Monasteries, schools, and settlement offices increasingly operate below the levels they were built to sustain.
- Chinese influence operations targeting India on Tibet have expanded well beyond the communist-party networks that once carried them, reaching state media platforms with tens of millions of Indian followers, AI systems with documented pro-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) outputs, and a coordinated 2023 smear campaign. They have not yet gained decisive traction. The exposure sits with Indian elite and academic opinion rather than with the public.
- Washington, New Delhi, and Dharamshala hold incomplete and partially inaccurate understandings of each other’s positions on the succession. No mechanism or dialogue exists to correct them, and Chinese operations work to keep it that way. The result is a strategic vulnerability Beijing is positioned to exploit.
The report concludes with twelve policy recommendations for Congress aimed at strengthening the United States’ ability to shape the succession environment before a crisis emerges. The recommendations are sequenced according to what must be in place before an interregnum, what requires action during the current Congress, and what will need to occur once a succession is underway.
The issue brief is available on the Commission's website here.
DISCLAIMER: This contracted report was prepared by Michael Schiffer of Sankhara Strategies, LLC at the request of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's Research Working Group to support the Commission's deliberations. Posting of the report to the Commission’s website is intended to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 110-161 and Public Law 113-291. However, the public release of this document does not necessarily imply an endorsement by the Commission or any individual Commissioner of the views of conclusions expressed in this contracted research report.
More than 25 years ago the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission began its work advising Congress on the economic, trade, and national security implications of the U.S.-China relationship, and providing recommendations to Congress for legislative and administrative action. Follow the Commission on LinkedIn and via @USCC_GOV on X/Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube.
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