Research Archive

Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China in April 2017 increased 13.7 percent year-on-year due to robust growth in U.S. imports. • Bilateral policy issues: The initial results of the U.S.-China 100-day action plan yield modest outcomes on agriculture, financial services, natural gas, and biotechnology; China’s cybersecurity law restricting overseas data flows goes into effect despite protests from foreign businesses; the Cybersecurity Administration of China prohibits foreign online news providers from operating in China through joint ventures. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China’s banking regulator issues comprehensive guidelines for controlling risks surrounding shady wealth management products (WMPs); new restrictions have caused banks to unwind WMP investment, which has raised costs of borrowing in some markets; China holds May 2017 summit for its One Belt One Road initiative, pledging $124 billion in funding for infrastructure projects and industrial development in participating countries; China plans to invest in a new economic zone called Xiongan New Area. • Sector focus – Beef: China promises to reopen its market to U.S. beef, but the lack of progress on Chinese poultry imports to the United States, use of growth-enhancing drugs in the feed of U.S. cattle, and lack of traceability of U.S. beef remain major hurdles to finalizing negotiations. 06/02/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on supply chain vulnerabilities from China in U.S. federal information technology (IT) procurement. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM (EST) on June 14, 2017. 05/11/2017
China’s direct financial linkages with the United States have been growing but remain very modest when compared to the two countries’ trade linkages. Beijing has taken steps to gradually open its financial sector to foreign investors, but U.S. investors have displayed little interest since the reforms are happening as Chinese policymakers impose tighter restrictions on foreign currency conversions and outbound capital flows. Economic and financial developments in China can affect U.S. financial markets more substantially through indirect channels, as was evident in the reaction of U.S. equities to China’s stock market crashes in 2015 and 2016. More broadly, the impact of China’s slowing growth and economic reforms on trade, commodities demand, and investor confidence affects global financial markets, which in turn influence U.S. financial markets. 05/09/2017
Highlights of this Month’s Edition · Bilateral trade: The U.S. goods trade deficit with China rose 1.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2017; in services, the United States the U.S. trade surplus in China for 2016 hit an all-time high of $37.4 billion. · Bilateral policy issues: At their first summit, Presidents Trump and Xi agree to reform a flagship bilateral dialogue and launch a 100-day plan for addressing economic and trade issues; the U.S. Treasury does not cite China as a currency manipulator and notes China’s intervention to strengthen its currency; the USTR calls China’s barriers to cloud computing incompatible with its WTO commitments, and identifies market access restrictions and domestic support for China’s agricultural sector; the United States challenges China at the WTO over its failure to fully report its subsidies and launches investigations to protect its domestic steel and aluminum industries. · Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2017, fueled primarily by surging industrial activity, property investment, and credit growth. 05/05/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s development of advanced weapons. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM (EST) on May 30, 2017. 04/21/2017
This two page issue brief lays out the U.S. statutory test for determining whether a country is a market economy, and assesses China’s eligibility based on those criteria. 04/19/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In February, U.S. deficit with China reached $23 billion, down 26.6 percent month-on-month and 18.3 percent year-on-year. • Bilateral policy issues: The United States is poised to maintain China’s status as a nonmarket economy; at Beijing’s request, WTO establishes panel to review the EU’s treatment of China as a nonmarket economy; Chinese outbound investment reached record levels in 2016, but an unprecedented number of Chinese investment transactions were canceled as Chinese authorities adopt measures to control capital outflows; additional measures to restrict outbound FDI will likely lead to an investment decline in 2017; China expands foothold in the U.S. rail market with a new $137.5 million contract to build train cars for Philadelphia’s transit system. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Work reports from China’s National People’s Congress stress the centrality of the CCP in policymaking, with President Xi at the helm; priority given to clamping down on financial instability; China is planning to establish a trading link connecting bond markets in China and Hong Kong. • Sector focus – Artificial Intelligence: China is aggressively closing gap with the United States for global leadership in artificial intelligence. 04/04/2017
The report examines Chinese investment in U.S. aviation and related university connections with Chinese entities and assesses the implications of the resulting technology transfer on U.S. national security and aviation industry competitiveness. This report was prepared for the Commission by the RAND Corporation. 03/29/2017
Chinese imports account for a disproportionately high number of product safety recalls in the United States, and China’s position as the largest supplier of U.S. consumer imports challenges U.S. safety regulatory agencies who must apply finite resources to screen out risky products. This staff paper explores unique product safety problems posed by Chinese imports, including legal difficulties associated with holding China-based firms accountable for unsafe products, gaps in China’s safety regulatory structure, and difficulty in identifying Chinese products that have been shipped through third party countries. The report also summarizes U.S. import safety procedures followed by the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the resources available to these agencies to detect unsafe imports. 03/23/2017
Despite areas of tension and distrust between Beijing and Moscow since normalizing relations in 1989, the two countries’ militaries and defense establishments have steadily worked to minimize and overcome these differences and are now experiencing arguably the highest period of cooperation. This staff report analyzes the three main components of military-to-military ties—military exercises, defense industrial cooperation, and high-level military contacts—which show increases in the level and quality of engagement, collectively reflecting closer defense relations. The report also describes the security implications of recent developments in Sino-Russian defense cooperation for the United States and the Asia Pacific. 03/20/2017

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Disclaimer

The research papers in this section were prepared at the request of the Commission to support its deliberations. They are posted to the Commission’s website in order to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by P.L. 106-398 and P.L. 108-7. Their posting to the Commission’s website does not imply an endorsement by the Commission or any individual Commissioner of the views or conclusions expressed in them.