United States-China Commission Hearings
October 12, 2001 - Proliferation Policies
Testimony before the U.S.-China Commission,
Assessing Chinese Nonproliferation Policies:
Progress, Problems and Issues for the United States
Prepared Statement for the U.S.-China Security Review Commission
Public Hearing on China's Proliferation Policies
October 12, 2001
Dr. Jing-dong Yuan
Senior Research Associate
Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Monterey Institute of International Studies
INTRODUCTION
Chairman D'Amato, Chairman Bryen, distinguished commissioners, I am very honored to testify before the U.S.-China Security Review Commission. I salute the Commission's efforts to better understand the critical issue of Chinese proliferation policies and behavior that affect Sino-U.S. relations in important ways. The mission of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies is to stem the spread of weapons of mass destruction by training the next generation of nonproliferation specialists and disseminating timely information and analysis. I welcome the opportunity to share with you some of my thoughts on this important issue. In addressing the seven sets of questions raised by the Commission, this prepared statement provides a brief overview of China's nonproliferation policies, documents Chinese proliferation activities over the last decade, and discusses some of the issues and problems confronting the United States.
For the period under discussion, a number of positive developments can be identified. These include China's accession to major international arms control and nonproliferation treaties; bilateral nonproliferation commitments given to the U.S. pledging; and new domestic regulations governing exports of nuclear, chemical and dual-use materials and technologies. These developments have been prompted by Beijing's growing recognition of proliferation threats; an acute concern over its international image; its assessment of how progress in nonproliferation could promote better Sino-US bilateral relations; and by US nonproliferation initiatives aimed at influencing Chinese behavior. Needless to say, significant problems remain and continue to haunt Sino-U.S. relations. Beijing has different perspectives on arms control and nonproliferation and tends to interpret its commitments narrowly. There are continuing controversies over Chinese transfers of nuclear, chemical, and missile components and technologies to countries of proliferation concern. Beijing is also increasingly linking fulfillment of its nonproliferation commitments to changes in U.S. policies in arms sales to Taiwan and missile defenses. This gap between Beijing's policy declarations and its actual practices has presented successive U.S. administrations with serious challenges.
The rest of this presentation is organized into three parts and addresses key issues raised by the Commission. I conclude with some general observations and policy recommendations. The three parts include:
- A brief overview of the evolution of Chinese nonproliferation policies over the past decade.
- A discussion of China's continuing involvement in proliferation activities, the underlying rationales, and strategic considerations.
- An analysis of the effectiveness of U.S. policy in influencing Chinese nonproliferation policies and behavior.
CHINA AND NONPROLIFERATION:
EVOLUTION TOWARD INTERNATIONAL NORMS
In the 1980s, China emerged as one of the leading suppliers of arms and dual-use technologies. Towards the end of the 1980s, revelations of Chinese nuclear and missile transfers to countries in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and South Asia raised serious proliferation concerns and were a contributing factor in the 'China threat' debate in the United States.1 Among the controversial Chinese arms transfers were the sale of the Dong Feng 3 (CSS-2) intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, HY-2 ('Silkworm') anti-ship missiles to Iran, the nuclear reactor deal with Algeria, and missile related transfers to Pakistan. Since the end of the Cold War, Beijing has made gradual yet significant progress in arms control and nonproliferation, specifically in three key areas:
- accession to major international arms control and nonproliferation treaties and conventions;
- bilateral arrangements with the United States pledging Chinese commitment to missile nonproliferation; and
- promulgation of domestic export control regulations.
A significant development in China's evolution toward international nonproliferation norms over the last decade has been the introduction of domestic export control regulations (see Table 2). Beginning with the May 1994 Foreign Trade Law, the Chinese government has issued a series of regulations, decrees, and circulars. Taken together, they constitute an emerging export control system (although China has still not promulgated the laws governing missile technology exports that it promised in November 2000).2 In addition, there has been institutional development indicating clearly that arms control and nonproliferation is increasingly assuming a higher profile in the making of China's national security policy. In April 1997, a new Department of Arms Control and Disarmament was established within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), giving credence to the growing importance of arms control and nonproliferation issues in Chinese foreign policy decision-making. And there has been growing coordination among MFA, MOFTEC (Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation), and CAEA (China Atomic Energy Agency) officials in implementing export control regulations.3
Table 1. China and International Nonproliferation Regimes
Heading: International Treaties and Negotiations
Acceded to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), March 1992
Signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), January 1993; ratified CWC and joined the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) as a founding member, April 1997
Participated in the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms from 1993 to 1997
Indicated in the U.S.-China joint statement of October 1994 support of the negotiation and "earliest possible achievement" of a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT)
Supported the indefinite extension of the NPT, May 1995
Signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), September 1996
Went along with strengthened International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, 1997 (although it has yet to endorse IAEA full-scope safeguards)
Heading: Multilateral Export Control Regimes
Pledged to abide by the original 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) guidelines in February 1992
Agreed in the October 1994 U.S.-China joint statement to adhere to the MTCR and agreed to apply the concept of "inherent capability" to its missile exports
Officially joined the Zangger Committee, October 1997
Promulgated the Regulations on Nuclear Export Control in September 1997; and the Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Nuclear Goods and Related Technologies in June 1998.
Announced a series of decrees and circulars governing chemical exports: Circular on Strengthened Chemical Export Controls (August 1997); Decree No.1 of the State Petroleum and Chemical Industry Administration (June 1998).
Issued the Regulations on Export Control of Military Items in October 1997
U.S.-China official talks during 1997-1998 on China's possible membership in the MTCR
Table 2. Evolution of China's Export Control System in the 1990s
Sectors: General
Laws and Regulations: • Foreign Trade Law, 1994
Sectors: Chemical & Dual-Use
Laws and Regulations: • Regulations on Chemical Export Controls, December 1995
• Supplement to the December 1995 regulations, March 1997
• A ministerial circular (executive decree) on strengthening chemical export controls, August 1997
• Decree No.1 of the State Petroleum and Chemical Industry Administration (regarding chemical export controls), June 1998 (Note: These regulations have expanded the coverage of China's chemical export controls to include dual-use chemicals covered by the Australia Group)
Sectors: Nuclear & Dual-Use
Laws and Regulations: • Circular on Strict Implementation of China's Nuclear Export Policy, May 1997
• Regulations on Nuclear Export Control, September 1997
(Note: The control list included in the 1997 regulations is identical to that used by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, to which China is not a member)
• Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Nuclear Goods and Related Technologies, June 1998
Sectors: Military & Dual-Use
Laws and Regulations: • Regulations on Export Control of Military Items, October 1997
• The Procedures for the Management of Restricted Technology Export, November 1998
(Note: The new regulations cover 183 dual-use technologies, including some on the Wassenaar Arrangement's "core list" of dual-use technologies)
• China's Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economics Cooperation (MOFTEC) released a Catalogue of Technologies which are Restricted or Banned in China, presumably also in late 1998
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE EVOLUTION OF CHINESE POLICIES
• Changing Perspective on Security. China has gradually begun to realize that proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and delivery systems can affect its own security interests negatively. A nuclear North Korea and the potential nuclearization of Northeast Asia (with South Korea and Japan following suit) are definitely not in China's interest. Similarly, a North Korea that continues to develop its ballistic missiles could also cause instability in the region, leading to reactions such as theater missile defense and Japanese participation in its development and deployment. These security concerns may explain Beijing's role in defusing the nuclear crisis and its quiet efforts to urge Pyongyang to halt its missile test.4
• Image Consideration. China's international image is another factor. Events in the late 1980s and early 1990s created an environment under which China felt obliged to move closer to the international nuclear nonproliferation norms. The revelations of Iraq's secret nuclear weapons program, the disclosure of China's export of a nuclear reactor to Algeria, and France's announcement to accede to the NPT helped push China into announcing its own accession to the NPT.5 China's endorsement of the NPT extension and abandonment of delaying tactics in the final days of the CTBT negotiations also provide evidence of its concern with its image as a responsible power.
• Technology Dependence. China's need for advanced U.S. technologies obliges it to undertake the necessary policy adjustments required by Washington. One example is the negotiation and implementation of the 1985 U.S.-China Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreement (NCA). China applied for membership and later joined the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in early 1984. Subsequently, it declared that it would apply IAEA safeguards to all of its nuclear exports and declared three principles governing its nuclear exports ñ peaceful use, IAEA safeguards, and no re-transfer without China's consent. Beijing promulgated nuclear export control regulations and joined the Zangger Committee in 1997. The Clinton administration was then able to certify China's compliance with U.S. nonproliferation legislation, paving the way for the NCA to enter into effect in March 1998.
• Stable Sino-U.S. Relations. Maintaining stable bilateral relations is also an important consideration for Beijing as it formulates its nonproliferation policies. For example, important progress was made prior to and during the Clinton-Jiang summits in 1997-1998 when bilateral relations were relatively stable and improving. China cancelled its nuclear reactor deals and halted delivery of the C-802 cruise missiles to Iran. It promulgated nuclear export control regulations and joined the Zangger Committee. These were clear efforts on China's part to address serious. U.S. concerns so that a better atmosphere could be created for the success of the summits and the advancement of bilateral relations.
CONTINUING CONCERNS AND CONTROVERSIES
Over the past decade, in particular since the mid-1990s, Chinese proliferation activities have narrowed in terms of both their scope and character. In the 1980s and early 1990s, China was involved in numerous. controversial arms transfers to countries in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and South Asia. These included nuclear weapons designs, exports and assistance to unsafeguarded nuclear facilities, and sales of complete missile systems, including HY-2 ('Silkworm') surface-to-ship missiles to Iran, Dong Feng 3 (CSS-2) intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, and 34 M-11 short-range ballistic missiles to Pakistan. In the latter half of the 1990s, Chinese transfers have moved away from complete missile systems to exports of largely dual-use nuclear, chemical, and missile technologies. At the same time, the number of recipient countries has also declined significantly.6
Despite these generally positive developments, serious. concerns remain over China's proliferation policy and activities. One is over Beijing's general approach to nonproliferation principles and practices. On the one hand, it has acceded to most international treaties and conventions that are broadly based with universal membership (e.g., NPT, CWC), and has by and large complied with their norms and rules. On the other hand, it remains critical of the key multilateral export-control regimes such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the Australia Group (AG), the Wassenaar Arrangement, and the MTCR and has declined to join them.
The record of Chinese proliferation activities over the past decade remains mixed and contentious.7 These controversies draw attention to the gap between Beijing's public pronouncement on nonproliferation and its reported proliferation activities, raising questions about China's commitment and intentions.8 Recent reports by the National Intelligence Council and the Central Intelligence Agency continue to identify China as one of the key suppliers of materials and technologies that contribute to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.9 Appendix I and Appendix II provide summaries of Chinese nuclear and missile exports and assistance over the past two decades.
Explaining the Word-Deep Gap
• Different Perspectives, Narrow Interpretation. While supporting the general principles of nonproliferation, China has often emphasized that there should be a proper balance between nonproliferation obligations and the need for legitimate peaceful use of nuclear, chemical, and space technologies. One plausible explanation therefore could be that Beijing simply views many of the controversial transfers, such as its nuclear reactor sales to Iran and Pakistan, as legitimate commercial transactions allowed by international treaties and under IAEA safeguards (even though not necessarily in compliance with FSS (full scope safeguards). At the same time, economic reform and opening up also encourage domestic defense industrial sectors to seek overseas markets for their products to compensate for the difficult defense conversion process and declining military procurement.10 Commercial interests and a different perspective on nonproliferation therefore provide for China's strict interpretation of its treaty obligations.
• Nascent Domestic Export Control System. Another reason may be the inability of the central government to monitor, much less control, the activities of various. companies due to the nascent nature of the domestic export control system and ambivalence in inter-agency coordination of policy from license review to approval, to customs inspections.11 Meanwhile, decentralization and institutional pursuit of parochial interests encourage companies to dodge regulations and even openly defy rules.12 The controversial sale of 5,000 ring magnets to Pakistan has often been cited as such an example of inadequate government oversight and effective control. Indeed, the sheer size of the chemical industry and the growing number of dual-use items make control efforts exceedingly difficult if not entirely futile.
• Deliberate Lapse in Enforcement. China may deliberately choose not to enforce its nonproliferation commitments as a way to retain its bargaining leverage with the United States on issues such as NMD and TMD, or simply as a retaliatory response to what it considers as an affront to its own national security interests by others. One area where this linkage operates is with US arms sales to Taiwan, where China sees continuing arms sales as a violation of the US commitment in the August 1982 communiqué. In addition, when bilateral relations experience downturn, Beijing has been less cooperative in arms control and nonproliferation. Such instances would include the release of the Cox Report charging Chinese nuclear espionage, U.S. allegations of Chinese campaign contributions, the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, and the controversial Wen-ho Lee case.
• Bargaining Ploy. Finally, Beijing increasingly links further progress on proliferation issues to US actions on its security concerns. This is clearly reflected in China's missile transfer activities. Beijing seeks to obtain tangible gains (e.g., satellite launches) in its negotiations with Washington and occasionally offers limited concessions. However, China never ignores the larger picture and has increasingly conditioned (although implicitly) its interpretation and implementation of missile nonproliferation commitment on US policy in areas of direct concern to itself, namely, arms sales to Taiwan and developments in missile defenses
BETWEEN CARROT AND STICK: THE U.S. ROLE
U.S.-Chinese disputes over nonproliferation issues remain a serious. problem in bilateral relations. Over the years, successive U.S. administrations have sought to influence Chinese policy through a combination of inducements and sanctions. These range from suspension of technology transfers and imposition of economic sanctions against selected Chinese companies implicated in violation of U.S. laws, to incentives in the forms of technology transfers to and commercial space launch contracts with China.13 Table 3 summarizes U.S. sanctions against China over the years.
Despite US pressure, Beijing reportedly has continued to transfer missile components and provide assistance to countries like Pakistan and Iran. Whether or not US sanctions have been effective in affecting Chinese behavior remains inconclusive at this point. What can be said is that a mixture of US sanctions (imposed or threatened) and economic benefits (withheld or offered) have had some impact on Chinese policy and behavior.
The recognition that sanctions may not "bite" without support from other countries and concerns that America's competitors may gain commercial advantages as a result of unilateral US sanctions probably explain why the US has turned to alternative policy initiatives to influence Chinese behavior.14 Given that an important motivation behind Chinese weapons transfers is the pursuit of commercial interests, economic incentives in the forms of technology transfers and trade benefits, and the lifting of existing sanctions can, under the right conditions, have induced Beijing to change its proliferation policies.15 Both the Bush and Clinton administrations have either offered to allow China greater access to U.S. technology or waived sanctions in return for Beijing's pledges and demonstrated actions to halt selling items and technologies of proliferation concern. Since 1989, Presidents Bush and Clinton have granted 20 waivers for U.S. satellites to be sent into orbit by Chinese launch vehicles.16 This practice has been used to encourage positive Chinese nonproliferation behavior by providing tangible economic benefits. Indeed, the Clinton administration specifically offered the prospect of expanding the space launch program, including waiving the post-Tiananmen sanctions on satellite launches on Chinese boosters to induce China to join the MTCR.17
Table 3. U.S. Nonproliferation Sanctions Against China, 1989-2001
Date: 1 Sept 2001
Santions: Imposed against China Metallurgical Equipment Corporation and its sub-units and successors
Desription: Imposed pursuant to the Arms Export Control Act and the Export Administration Act of 1979, as amended
Status: Duration of a minimum of two years
Date: 18 June 2001
Santions: Imposed against Jiangsu Yongli Chemicals and Technology Import and Export Corporation
Desription: Imposed pursuant to the Section 3 of the Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000
Status: (THIS CELL IS EMPTY)
Date: 21 May 1997
Santions: Imposed against five Chinese individuals, two Chinese companies, and one Hong Kong company for knowingly and materially contribution to Iran's chemical weapons program
Desription: Imposed pursuant to the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991
Status: Duration of a minimum of one year
Date: 24 August 1993
Santions: Imposed against China's Ministry of Aerospace Industry that had engaged in missile technology proliferation activities, and Chinese government organizations involved in development or production of electronics, space systems, or equipment and military aircraft and Pakistan's Ministry of Defense
Desription: Imposed pursuant to the 1990 Missile Technology Control Act
Status: Waived 1 November 1994;
Sanctions against Pakistani Ministry of Defense expired August 1995
Date: 25 May 1991
Santions: Prohibition of the export of missile-related computer technology and satellites
Desription: Imposed pursuant to the 1990 Missile Technology Control Act
Restricting the export of missile technology, missile-related computers and satellites
No waivers on satellite export licenses
Status: Waived 23 March 1992;
Sanctions against Pakistan's SUPARCO expired
Another example of economic incentives at work was the 1998 certification by the Clinton administration that paved the way for implementing the 1985 Sino-U.S. agreement on peaceful use of nuclear energy.18 This allowed the U.S. nuclear industry to tap into China's potential billion-dollar nuclear market, in addition to encouraging more responsible Chinese nuclear export controls.19 Over the years since the conclusion of the U.S.-China NCA, successive U.S. administrations had indicated that implementation of the agreement required China to make specific nonproliferation commitments. Persistent U.S. efforts gradually brought about noticeable change in Chinese nonproliferation policy. In May 1996, China made a formal pledge not to provide nuclear and dual-use assistance to unsafeguarded foreign facilities. In addition, China phased out its nuclear cooperation programs with Iran by suspending the sale of two 300-megawatt Qinshan-type nuclear power reactors, canceling the transfer of a uranium conversion facility, and turning down Iranian requests for other sensitive equipment and technology.20 In October 1997, China formally joined the Zangger Committee.
However, the strategy of economic incentives, in particular in the form of technology transfers, has its limitations and is not without its controversies. For instance, the Clinton administration's effort to get China to join the MTCR in exchange for greater access to American commercial space technology has been declined by Beijing.21 At the same time, U.S. technology transfers risk diversion to Chinese military end-use or, more worrying still, re-exports to third countries. There already have been a number of such cases where U.S. machine tools and computers supposedly designated for civilian end-use have found their way in factories manufacturing Chinese cruise missiles and new-generation fighter aircraft.22 Another prominent case involves two U.S. satellite makers, Loral and Hughes, which allegedly provided sensitive information to China. In 1995-96, the two companies conducted investigations into the causes of the failed launches of the Apstar 2 and Intelsat 708 by Chinese Long March rockets but, without obtaining the necessary export control license, had disseminated the results of the findings to China without obtaining the necessary export control license, had. The sensitive information transmitted could potentially help China improve its ballistic missile guidance systems.23
In sum, U.S. attempts to pressure China into accepting Western arms-transfer guidelines through the use of releasing/withholding advanced technologies have so far produced mixed results. Although one cannot deny that from time to time China has exercised restraint and has made good on its pledges, this is likely a reflection of Beijing's assessment of its national interests after weighing expected rewards (Western technologies) against forsaken commercial opportunities (missile/nuclear transfers). One important factor that may have influenced China's nonproliferation policy is its perception of how progress in this policy area could contribute to the overall bilateral relationship. This may have influenced China's decision to discontinue sales of anti-ship missiles (C-802, C-801) to Iran.24 It may also provide the rationale for China to issue its key nuclear and dual-use export control regulations in 1997-98: to facilitate the development of a "strategic partnership" between China and the United States, as well as to secure the Clinton administration certification for implementation of the 1985 NCA. This linkage suggests that a serious deterioration in Sino-US relations could cause China to increase its proliferation activities.
Securing China's Compliance: Difficulties and Challenges
The difficulty in securing China's full compliance with United States nonproliferation policy lies in differences in perceptions, interests, and policy goals. While the U.S. has introduced broad-ranging nonproliferation measures and targeted particular states in implementing its policy, China has only committed to the universally accepted global nonproliferation norms as embodied in the NPT and the CWC. It is therefore not difficult to understand why Beijing resisted U.S. pressures to suspend nuclear exports to Iran, since the latter complies with IAEA safeguard provisions, including full-scope safeguards.
There are also differences in interests. Washington seeks to stem proliferation of WMD and their delivery systems to the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and South Asia out of its interests for the protection of U.S. troops deployed in these regions, secure supplies of oil, the security of Israel, and stability in Indo-Pak relations. Beijing, on the other hand, regards its nuclear and missile exports as an important source of foreign exchange as well as ways to gaining influence in these regions.25 Indeed, China's refusal to adopt IAEA full-scope safeguards may be due to concerns that such measures would deprive it of potential markets for nuclear technology. With regard to its continued missile technology transfers and assistance to Pakistan, Beijing's motive may be more strategic than commercial. Islamabad has remained an important factor in Beijing's strategic calculation regarding South Asia and useful in its competition with India.26
Finally, China is increasingly concerned with the ultimate goal of US nonproliferation policy — what it views as the US drive for absolute security. Consequently, Beijing wants to retain flexibility and bargaining leverage with Washington. The latter has become more relevant given the developments since early 1999 ñ the bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the release of the Cox Report, and US decisions to develop and deploy both national and theater missile defense systems. Beijing is especially concerned with the last development, which it considers as the most potent threat to its national security interests.27 China's predictable response will be to build up its missile forces and develop counter measures; Beijing will also hold any progress in global arms control hostage to US missile defense decisions. China is already pushing for setting up an ad hoc committee at the Conference on Disarmament to negotiate an outer space non-weaponization treaty and has held up work on a fissile material cut-off treaty.28
Missile defenses and Taiwan have emerged as the key issues likely to divide Beijing and Washington over the priorities of the arms control and nonproliferation agenda. Unless serious efforts are made to address some of China's core security concerns, Beijing can be expected to be less concerned about issues of greater significance to the US, such as weapons proliferation, when it perceives that its own interests are either being ignored or even harmed by US actions. One way to register unhappiness and to avenge its grievance is to make military transfers to regions/countries of U.S. concern, or to be less responsive to U.S. calls to tighten up China's own export control and international nonproliferation commitments. Other retaliation measures have been cancellation of high-level visits and bilateral talks on nonproliferation issues such as missile transfers and fissile material cut-off.29
Given that Sino-U.S. disputes over proliferation issues reflect differences in threat perceptions and derive from lack of mutual understanding of each other's positions and security concerns, extended high-level talks are particularly important and can result in substantive progress in the area of nonproliferation.30 Indeed, constructive dialogue and better understanding between China and the United States on various. weapons transfer-related issues may increase the chance of their eventual solution. Clearly, efforts must be made to encourage Beijing to comply with, in spirit as well as in letter, the norms and practices of nonproliferation. In this regard, the U.S. can and should play an important role given its concern over the proliferation of WMD and its leadership role in various. multilateral nonproliferation export-control regimes. However, the U.S. failure to ratify the CTBT and its aggressive push for ABM modification has in China's eyes greatly weakened American credibility in global nonproliferation leadership.
CONCLUSION
China has made significant progress in its nonproliferation policies over the last decade. This is reflected in its gradual acceptance of the core elements of the international nonproliferation norms, rules, and code of conduct. China has also pledged adherence to the MTCR's original guidelines governing missile transfers, and introduced elements of a domestic export control system. The factors that have contributed to these positive developments include China's concern over its international image, a growing awareness of the danger that WMD proliferation can pose to its own security, and its interest in maintaining a stable US-China relationship. US policy initiatives to engage, induce and punish have also had some impact on Chinese proliferation behavior. However, the pace and future direction of Chinese nonproliferation policy will be closely linked to Beijing's overall assessment of its security interests, threats, and policy priorities. Given recent developments in missile defenses and the growing salience of the Taiwan issue, continued Chinese support of global arms control and nonproliferation cannot be taken for granted. The Bush administration has both opportunities to seize and major obstacles to overcome in its efforts to enlist continued Chinese cooperation in arms control and nonproliferation. Several general observations can be made here.
• Continue to Engage China. Engagement should remain a key element of U.S. China policy, but the choice of appropriate policy tools remains a challenge. Continued high-level official dialogue on security, arms control and nonproliferation between the U.S. and China must be maintained and regularized. Such dialogues should not merely focus. on U.S. concerns over specific Chinese proliferation activities but also on the potential threats that WMD proliferation can pose to China's own security.
• Balancing Competing Policy Objectives. The Bush administration needs a clear sense of balance and priorities in managing U.S.-China relations, promoting global nonproliferation agendas, protecting America against ballistic missile threats, and honoring its commitment to supporting a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue.
• Assisting China's Export Control System. One of the consequences of China's economic reforms and opening up is the decreasing capability of the central government to oversee and control economic activities, some of which can cause proliferation concerns. While China has introduced some elements of a domestic export control system, a lot remains to be done and the U.S. can and should encourage and assist Chinese efforts in this direction by offering training and institutional development support.
• Judicious Use of Sanctions. Judicious. and selective use of sanctions may continue to serve their purposes, especially when there are undeniable Chinese violations of its nonproliferation commitments and when such activities are clearly sanctioned by the government. On the other hand, a rush to impose sanctions without giving time for clarification, checking evidence, and negotiation can generate a lot of animosity but not necessarily produce the desired outcomes. Whenever possible, broad allied support should be sought; otherwise sanctions cannot be effective either as an instrumental (forcing policy change in Beijing) or a punitive (denying Beijing what it wants) tool. At the same time, sanctions (which impose high costs on certain US industries) could become increasingly difficult to sustain, and incur growing opposition from American business communities.
• Executive-Legislative Branch Coordination. Finally, there must be greater coordination between the executive and legislative branches to achieve greater credibility in US nonproliferation policy. The implementation of the China policy must remain the purview of the executive branch, with congressional and bipartisan consultation and support. In other words, there should be only one China policy and consistency in its interpretation and implementation. Rather than seeking to introduce additional China specific legislation, Congress should work with the administration and focus on oversight issues so as to ensure that existing laws that are in line with global nonproliferation norms and principles are enforced.
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ENDNOTES:
1. On this point, see Evan S. Medeiros, "China, WMD Proliferation, and the 'China Threat' Debate," Issues & Studies 36:1 (January/February 2000), pp.19-48.
2. Richard T. Cupitt and Yuzo Murayama, Export Controls in the People's Republic of China, Status. Report 1998 (Athens, GA: Center for International Trade and Security, University of Georgia, 1998).
3. Bates Gill and Evan S. Medeiros, "Foreign and Domestic Influences on China's Arms Control and Nonproliferation Policies," The China Quarterly 161 (March 2000), pp.66-94.
4. Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), pp.92-122; "PRC Played 'Crucial Role' in Halting DPRK Missile Launch," The Korean Times (Internet version), 20 September 1999.
5. Zachary S. Davis, "China's Nonproliferation and Export Control Policies: Boom or Bust for the NPT Regime?" Asian Survey 35:6 (June 1995), p.591.
6. Evan S. Medeiros, "The Changing Character of China's WMD Proliferation Activities," in Robert Sutter, ed., China and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Implications for the United States (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Spring 2000).
7. Media coverage in this area is extensive. See also, the Majority Report of the Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation, and Federal Services of the Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate, The Proliferation Primer (January 1998); and Shirley A. Kan, China's Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Current Policy Issues. CRS Issue Brief (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, updated 10 July 2001).
8. Medeiros, "China, WMD Proliferation, and the 'China Threat' Debate."
9. National Intelligence Council, Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015, September 1999. Director of Central Intelligence, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 1999 (August 2000).
10. See John Frankenstein and Bates Gill, "Current and Future Challenges Facing Chinese Defence Industries," The China Quarterly 146 (June 1996), pp.394-427.
11. See Cupitt and Murayama, Export Controls in the People's Republic of China.
12. John W. Lewis, Hua Di, and Xue Litai, "Beijingís Defense Establishment: Solving the Arms-Export Enigma," International Security 15:4 (Spring 1991), pp.87-109.
13. See "U.S. nonproliferation sanctions against China" (Monterey, Calif.: East Asia Nonproliferation Program database, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2001); Duncan L. Clarke and Robert J. Johnston, "U.S. Dual-Use Exports to China, Chinese Behavior, and the Israel Factor: Effective Control?" Asian Survey 39:2 (March/April 1999), pp.193-213; Victor Zaborsky, "Economics vs. Nonproliferation: U.S. Launch Quota Policy Toward Russia, Ukraine, and China," The Nonproliferation Review 7:3 (Fall-Winter 2000), pp.152-161.
14. The economic rationale for not using sanctions as a policy instrument is captured in David M Lampton, "America's China Policy in the Age of the Finance Ministers: Clinton Ends Linkage," The China Quarterly 139 (September 1994), pp.597-621. It has been estimated in a recent U.S. government study that billions of dollars in potential sales to China could be lost as a result of unilateral U.S. sanctions. See United States General Accounting Office, U.S. Government Policy Issues Affecting U.S. Business Activities in China (Washington, D.C.: May 1994).
15. William J. Long, "Trade and Technology Incentives and Bilateral Cupertino," International Studies Quarterly 40:1 (March 1996), pp.77-106.
16. Warren Ferster, "Sanctions Legislation Frustrates Industry," Space News, 25-31 May 1998, p.20.
17. Howard Diamond, "U.S. Renews Effort to Bring China into Missile Control Regime," Arms Control Today 28:2 (March 1998), p.22.
18. "Text: President Certifies China under U.S.-China Nuclear Agreement," United States Information Agency, 16 January 1998; Howard Diamond, "Clinton Moves to Implement Sino-U.S. Nuclear Agreement," Arms Control Today 28:1 (January/February 1998), p.30.
19. Jennifer Weeks, "Sino-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation at a Crossroads," Arms Control Today 27:5 (June/July 1997), pp.7-13.
20. R. Jeffrey Smith, "China's Pledge to End Iran Nuclear Aid Yields U.S. Help," Washington Post, 30 October 1997, p.1.
21. Howard Diamond, "U.S. Renews Effort to Bring China into Missile Control Regime," Arms Control Today 28:2 (March 1998), p.22; Jim Mann, "China Rejects Joining Missile-Control Group, U.S. Officials Say," Los Angeles Times, 17 April 1998, http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATIONS/t000036404.html.
22. Nigel Holloway, "Cruise Control," Far Eastern Economic Review, 14 August 1997, pp.14-16; Jonathan S. Landay, "Is China Diverting High Technology to U.S. Foes?" The Christian Science Monitor, 11 July 1997, pp.1, 8.
23. "Hughes and Loral: Too Eager to Help China?" Business Week, 13 September 1999; Juliet Eilperin, "GOP Leaders Demand Satellite Export Data," Washington Post, 12 May 1998, p.A5.
24. Bill Gertz, "China to halt missile sales to Iran," Washington Times, 20 January 1998.
25. See John Calabrese, "China and the Persian Gulf: Energy and Security," The Middle East Journal 52:3 (Summer 1998), pp.351-366.
26. Mushahid Hussain, "Pakistan-China defense co-operation: an enduring relationship," International Defense Review 2/1993, pp.108-111; Cameron Binkley, "Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Development: The Sword of Islam?" in William C. Potter and Harlan W. Jencks, eds., The International Missile Bazaar: The New Suppliers" Network (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1984), pp.75-97.
27. Paul H.B. Godwin and Evan S. Medeiros, "China, America, and Missile Defense: Conflicting National Interests," Current History (September 2000), pp.285-289.
28. See, for example, statement by Mr. Hu Xiaodi, Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs of China at the Plenary of the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, 15 JUNE 2000. [http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/c464.html]
29. Barbara Opall, "U.S. Queries China on Iran," Defense News, 19-25 June 1995, pp.1, 50.
30. Bates Gill and Matthew Stephenson, "Search for Common Ground: Breaking the Sino-U.S. Non-Proliferation Stalemate," Arms Control Today 26:7 (September 1996), pp.15-20.
APPENDIX 1: China's Nuclear Technology Exports In The 1980s And 1990s
ALGERIA:
Research Reactor
• 15 MWt pressurized heavy water research reactor; possible provisions of heavy water for the reactor; construction began around 1988; placed under IAEA safeguards in 1992
• Designs for construction of third stage of Algeria's Center for Nuclear Energy Research
ARGENTINA:
Low Enriched Uranium
• 20% enriched, sold in 1980s, no safeguards
Heavy Water
• 50-60 metric tons (1981-1985); no safeguards
Uranium Concentrate (U308)
• 1981-1985, no safeguards
Uranium Hexafluoride Gas (LJF6)
• Early 1980s, 30 metric tons; no safeguards
BRAZIL:
Enriched Uranium
• 3%, 7%, 20% enriched; 200 kg total
• 1984, no safeguards
INDIA:
Heavy water
• 1982-1987; 130-150 metric tons
• No IAEA safeguards
Low-Enriched Uranium
• 1995, for India's Tarapur reactors
• Supplied under IAEA safeguards
IRAN:
Research Reactors
• 27kW subcritical, neutron source reactor; provided in 1985; currently under IAEA safeguards
• Zero-power reactor; commercial contract signed in 1991; currently under IAEA safeguards
• HT-6B Tokamak nuclear fusion reactor, located at Azan University
• 20 MWt reactor; contract signed in 1992 but the deal was canceled due to US pressure
Power Reactors: two 300 MWe reactors
• Deal suspended in 1995 and canceled in 1997
• CIA verified project cancellation
Calutrons (electromagnetic isotope separators, EMIS)
• For Karaj and Isfahan facilities; commercial contract signed in 1989; under safeguards
Uranium Hexaflouride (UF6) Production Facility
• Project canceled in October 1997
• CIA verified cancellation of deal
• China possibly provided blueprints for facility
Zirconium Tube Production Facility
• Assistance continuing
Uranium Mining Assistance
IRAQ:
Ring Magnets
• Exports of samarium-cobalt magnets for gas centrifuges, 1989-1990
PAKISTAN:
NUCLEAR WEAPON-RELATED ASSISTANCE
• Nuclear Weapon Design
- Basic, Hiroshima sized weapon
• Nuclear Weapon Testing
- Possible inclusion of Pakistani observers at China's Lop Nur test facility (1989)
• Possible Provision of Tritium Gas
-1986, no safeguards
• Uranium Enrichment
- Assistance to unsafeguarded Kahuta enrichment facility
- This assistance was a two-way street
• Weapons-Grade Uranium for Two Devices
- Early 1980s, supplied without safeguards
DUAL-USE NUCLEAR ASSISTANCE
• Power Reactor: Chashma-1, 300 MWe
- Construction is continuing
- Under IAEA safeguards (INFCIRC/418)
• Reprocessing Facility at Chashma.
- Possible construction assistance to unsafeguarded facility
• Research Reactors
- Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR); supplied under 1AEA safeguards (INFCIRC/393) in 1991
- Construction assistance with Parr-2 reactor, unsafeguarded
• Ring Magnets
- About 5,000 to unsafeguarded. A.Q. Khan Research Laboratory in Kahuta (1995)
• Plutonium Production Reactor at Khushab
- 50-70 N1W heavy water reactor (unsafeguarded)
- Construction assistance
- Provided special industrial furnace and high-tech diagnostic equipment (1994-1995)
• Heavy water (D20)
- Up to 5 MT/year for safeguarded PHWR [Kanupp] research reactor
- Possibly diverted by Pakistan to the Khushab research reactor against Chinese wishes
• Fuel Fabrication Services
APPENDIX 2: China's Missile Technology Exports In The 1980s And 1990s
IRAN
• Ballistic Missiles
- 8610/CSS-8
- M-9/DF-15 (China cancelled the sale under US pressure)
• Cruise Missiles
- HY-1
- 100 HY-2 (Silkworm)
- HY-4/C-201
- C-601
- YJ-I/C-801 (sales halted in October 1997)
- YJ-2/C-802 (sales halted in October 1997)
• Assistance to Iran's Indigenous Missile Programs
- Extensive production assistance for the 8610/CSS-8 missile
- Extensive production infrastructure for HY-2, C-801 and C 802 missiles (production assistance halted in 1997)
- Possible assistance to the Shahab-3 ballistic missile
- FL-10 air-launched cruise missile
• Missile Fuel
- Various propellant ingredients
- Ammonium perchlorate
• Missile Guidance and Control Technology
- Guidance kits (mid-1990s)
- Gyroscopes (mid-1990s)
- Accelerometers (mid-1990s)
- Test equipment for ballistic missiles (mid-1990s)
IRAQ
• Cruise Missiles (1980s)
- HY-2 (Silkworm)
- C-601
- YJ-I/C-801
• Missile Engine Testing Facility/Project 3209
- Supply of standard parts for liquid propellant engine, late 1980s
• Missile Fuel
- 10 tons of UDNIH, late 1980s
- 7 tons of lithium hydride; 1989-1990; exported by the China Wanbac, Engineering Company (CV*TEC)
- Ammonium perchlorate, 1994
LIBYA
• Missile Fuel
- Lithium hydride
PAKISTAN
• Ballistic Missiles and Launchers
- 34 M-II/DF-11 missiles; stored at Pakistan's Sargodha Air Force Base near Lahore; delivered in November 1992
- M- 11 transporter-erector-launchers (TELs)
• Possible Assistance to Indigenous Missile Programs
- Hatf-1, Hatf-2 and Hatf-3 ballistic missiles
• Missile Fuel
- Ammonium perchlorate, 10 tons seized in Hong Kong in 1996; Pakistan's SUPARCO was caught attempting to import the ammonium perchlorate from a company in Xian, China
• Ballistic Missiles and Launchers
- 34 M-1 I/DF-1 I missiles; stored at Pakistan's Sargodha Air Force Base near Lahore; delivered in November 1992
- M-11 transporter-erector-launchers (TELs)
• Possible Assistance to Indigenous Missile Programs
- Hatf-1, Hatf-2 and Hatf-3 ballistic missiles
• Missile Fuel
- Ammonium perchlorate, 10 tons seized in Hong Kong in 1996; Pakistan's SUPARCO was caught
attempting to import the ammonium perchlorate from a company in Xian, China
• Missile Guidance
- Gyroscopes
- Accelerometers
- On-board computers
• Assistance to Missile Production Factory
- Rawalpindi, 40 kin west of Islamabad
- Likely producing Pakistani version of M-11 missile
- Blueprints and construction equipment, possibly ongoing
SAUDI ARABIA
• Ballistic Missiles
- 30+ DF-3 (CSS-2) missiles; deliveries began in 1988; and included construction of launch
complex, training, and post-sale systems maintenance
- In 1997, Saudi Arabia requested from China possible replacements for the aging DF-3 missiles;
China did not provide any replacements
SYRIA
• Ballistic Missiles
- DF-15/M-9 missiles, Syria provided advance payments
- Cancelled under US pressure in 1991; Syria possibly received test missile
• Assistance with Indigenous Programs
- 30 tons of ammonium perchlorate in 1992
- Technical exchanges
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