China’s Worries at Sea

In 2002, a group of Chinese naval warships visited South Korea.

On the map, China is shaped like a rooster, its head pointing eastward, facing the Pacific. Speaking of China’s maritime security, Jiang Zhijun, director of the Chinese Naval Research Institute of the PLA Navy, made a vivid analogy: “While the development and advancement of the ‘Rooster’ move in the direction of the seas, its soft vulnerable belly is also exposed to the waters.” To put it more exactly: China’s security challenges mainly come from the seas.

What, then, are the specific challenges? Jiang Zhijun said that in view of the fact that the primary task of China’s naval defense force, as stipulated by China’s national interests, is to complete the reunification process with Taiwan. At the same time, the naval force is also entrusted with the protection of China’s maritime rights and interests against possible invasion and damage, and to safeguard China’s rapidly growing export-oriented economy. Further, the drastically changed modern day warfare has also meant that long-range precision attacks characterizing high technology warfare will pose another grim threat to China’s defense of the territorial seas.

With Taiwan in hand, the Pacific Ocean will become China’s open field to the East

China is the only major country in today’s world that has not been unified. If China were to become strong, it would have to complete the grand task of reunification. The strategic importance of Taiwan simply can not be over-stated. Jiang Zhijun noted that the present state of China’s maritime security is rather grave. Generally speaking, the defense proficiency is not good, the level of defense combat effectiveness is low and there is little initiative control power.

China’s territorial waters are mostly composed of enclosed or semi-enclosed areas surrounded by the “first island chain”. Looking from north to south, apart from the South China Sea, all of China’s sea territory directly faces east towards the Pacific Ocean. The distance of most of the “first island chain” areas is no more than 200 nautical miles to China’s coast, which, in modern warfare, is within easy effective strike range. Locked in by the “first island chain” blockade, China’s sea defense force could hardly move beyond the boundary to carry out any meaningful defense operation. The only thing to do is to back up against the coastal lines to conduct shallow water defense. Since combat occurs right outside China’s doorway, China will be fighting close at home and is left with hardly any maneuver room to take operational initiative. Taiwan ought to be China’s natural gateway, but, if things went sour, it could then turn out to be other people’s stepping board for attacks against China.

Every big country bordering on both land and sea must have a safe exit point out to the waters. However, China’s exit point to the sea is questionable. It might not be a problem during times of peace, but during crisis, if the enemy country seals off the “first island chain,” then China would lose its exit way and the channel to connect to the outside world via the sea.

However, once the Taiwan issue is resolved, all the above strategic maritime safety concerns would automatically dissipate. Taiwan is China’s ideal seaward exit way bequeathed to us by our ancestors. As long as Taiwan is in China’s hand, then the Pacific would be an open area to China. Taiwan itself is a key link in the “first island chain”. After Taiwan is reunified with mainland China, this “first island chain” blockade will be broken, enabling the Chinese troops to expand their defense lines out to the Pacific in the East in order to better protect the safety of China’s coast and inland. By that time, the Taiwan Strait would become a safe and convenient route of communication for transporting troops and supplies between north and south.

In terms of China’s maritime rights and interests, Taiwan is also of immense significance. The issue of China’s maritime interests is addressed too late and the extensive degree of damage China has endured is rarely seen among other major countries of the world. Almost half of what should have always been Chinese territory according to international maritime laws have been forcefully taken away or invaded, the natural resources being looted routinely. Once the (Taiwan) reunification mission is completed, Diaoyu (Senkaku) Island to the North and the waters surrounding it would fall into the range of the Chinese gunfire protection. To the south, the distance from China’s coastal defense force to all the South China Sea islands and regions will be shortened by a big margin.

Jiang Zhijun added that, if the reverse happened, i.e., if the Taiwan issue is not resolved, China’s seaward defense forces would be tied down and preoccupied too much to address other important maritime safety concerns. Jiang Zhijun indicated that China would do everything it can to solve the reunification issue peacefully so that the people of Taiwan would not suffer any losses. However, the Taiwan authorities should not make the mistake of interpreting the situation any other way. If the “Taiwan Independence” elements are determined to betray their Chinese ancestry and attempt to separate themselves from the motherland, then China would not show any leniency towards them. A disloyal child would be expelled from the Chinese family. The precious jewel of this land will have to stay with the mother country, and China is not afraid of anybody else’s intervention either. Jiang Zhijun said with determination: “for the sake of safeguarding its sovereignty, China is not afraid to fight. If the country is destroyed as a result of war, so be it, and we can rebuild it. But there is absolutely no way China will tolerate separation!”

To protect overseas interests and guarantee a safe sea route of communication

A country’s security is always integrated with its development; in other words, if the security of a country’s development is threatened, then the defense force will come into play and make efforts to reduce or eliminate such a threat.

The oceans and seas of the world provide vital energy and links needed for a globalizing economy. Ninety five percent of the world trade volume is shipped through sea routes. At the same time, the waters also provide important strategic space for sustainable human existence. Take natural resources, for instance, the mineral and biological resources contained in the oceans and seas of the world are 1000 times more than the resources found on land. Yang Yi, Director of the Strategic Studies Research Institute of the National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army, pointed out that, after over 20 years of reforms and opening up to the outside world, China’s comprehensive national power has grown considerably, and its GDP has climbing to an impressive sixth position in the world. China’s export has grown even more rapidly, being the fourth biggest exporter in terms of its trade volume. Therefore, China must have strong naval power to provide maritime security in the interest of its sea lines of communication, foreign trade, overseas market and maritime industries.

Take oil, an important strategic energy resource, for example, China has quickly surpassed Japan to become the second biggest oil consumer in the world. And for the foreseeable future, import route for China’s oil will mainly be on the waters. At the present, the total volume of oil via the Strait of Malacca accounts for more than 70% of China’s total oil import. Nearly 60% of the daily merchant shipping traffic passing through the Strait of Malacca belongs to China.

Yang Yi also said that it must be admitted that China’s naval defense capability is only limited to offshore operations, and the country has not paid enough attention to security issues in the blue waters, which is out of synchronization with the development needs of an export-oriented country.

Jiang Zhijun said that China’s sea routes could be easily threatened by war and terrorist activities. With the country’s present large international trade volume, it would not be possible to provide individual naval protection to all ships. However, in order to provide a basic degree of safety along the international sea routes, a country’s naval force needs to have two abilities. One is to be able to react rapidly in a crisis, including military response in the crisis area, to demonstrate a capability to protect a country’s interests. The second ability is to be able to project a equal deterrence--if you dare to threaten our international sea routes, then we have ways to threaten your safety, including your safety of sea travels. Jiang Zhijun also said that, in view of the reality of China’s seaward defense development, China should strengthen its deterrence ability to rival or challenge the opponent enough that the opponent would not dare to take any risks meddling with China’s maritime interests.

A Navy is a Value-Added National Defense Force

The nature of modern day high tech warfare is mostly non-contact and asymmetrical, with the ability to launch precision strikes from as far away as one or even two thousand kilometers, and the depth of the battlefield is indefinitely expandable. The concept of modern national defense must cover areas such as “stop the enemy from advancing beyond certain sea lines”, “expand the depth of defense over the seas”, and “protect the country’s forever extending overseas interests”. At the same time, matching combat capabilities have to follow.

As the center of the seaward military forces, the Navy is defined as a force which can approach another country. A strong country can strike targets along the other country’s coast or inland without entering into the other country’s defense range. Several times in the past, high tech warfare occurred where the war was launched from a long distance away but with precise strikes from the sea. Jiang Zhijun said that, as a major world power, China will not tolerate the insulting situation where somebody else can attack you but you cannot reach them. Ideally the best strategy is to build the defense line for as long as the range of the weapons of your enemy. To achieve this efficiency, China’s Navy needs to rapidly improve its combat operation capabilities at ocean range. If this can not be achieved in the near term, at least China must have the methods, the means and the ability to deter the opponent. China must develop better long-range strike capability, ocean-range operation capability, and seek ways to strategically increase the potential damages of war for the opponent to enhance China’s security index.

On the question of what defense forces will be developed, Jiang Zhijun said, that would depend on the practical needs. He stressed the point that, while making decisions, China must take into consideration the vast returns that the development of the Navy would bring to the economy and the build-up of the national strength. A navy is a defense force with an added value attached. A strong navy will raise a country’s prestige in the world and increase a country’s influence and the credibility in the international arena. It would give the other countries a stronger sense of assurance when they deal with China, and therefore, it would benefit China’s sea routes, foreign trade and investment prospects.

To the opinion that a strengthened navy will prove the “China Threat Theory”, Jiang Zhijun said, China’s armed forces are peace-loving forces. But, because of an ill-balanced world military order, the effect of military forces is being amplified out of proportion by the hegemonism and the state of warfare in general has gone through dramatic new changes, entailing new demand for protecting a country’s national security interests. It is under these circumstances that China is gradually turning its attention to developing seaward defense, with the purpose of increasing the national security index and raising China’s status and credibility in solving international disputes through political, diplomatic and peaceful means. In a hegemonic logic, “only an unbeatable enemy can be a true friend.” Therefore, only when China has its own unrivalled strength can it truly create a peaceful environment for development. Jiang Zhijun said that to be honest, if China’s development would provoke a certain country to speak of a “China Threat”, it would only prove that our development is on the right track, and our peace is safeguarded. If nobody cares about whatever development program we embark on, then it would mean that our power has not grown strong enough.

(source: Global Times, reprinted in the People’s Liberation Daily, 2 January 2004)