Introductory Remarks by
Chairman Roger W. Robinson, Jr.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
"China's Proliferation Practices and the Challenge of North Korea"
July 24, 2003
138 Dirksen Senate Office Building
Today the Commission will be addressing a subject that in my view is the highest priority in our legislative mandate, namely the Chinese role in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles to terrorist-sponsoring states. While Chinese firms continue to be involved in troubling transfers of WMD-related materials to states of concern, there is no more ominous threat to the viability of global non-proliferation mechanisms than the burgeoning nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula. Among the nations in the region, China by far possesses the greatest amount of economic and political leverage to advance efforts to defuse this crisis. So, notwithstanding China's own record on proliferation, the unfolding events on the Korean peninsula present China with a special opportunity to bring North Korea back from the brink.
As we convene this hearing, the U.S. and its allies, as well as China and
North Korea, are cascading toward a historically important crossroad fraught
with danger for our country and the world. In short, will North Korea continue
to proceed with the reprocessing of some 8,000 spent fuel rods to extract plutonium
for the production of reportedly six or more nuclear warheads to be added to
the handful of nuclear weapons North Korea claims it already possesses? If Pyongyang
completes the current reprocessing of these fuel rods, in the absence of a dramatic
use of Chinese leverage, it would be no exaggeration to observe that the nuclear
weapons- and proliferation-related crisis on the peninsula would have, to a
large extent, reeled out of control. Published reports indicate that this new
echelon of proliferation peril and nuclear threat could eventuate well within
the next six months.
Accordingly, this Commission is properly focusing today on the most pressing
dimension of the broader Chinese proliferation challenge. Will North Korea be
permitted to nuclearize, despite the President's strong statements that such
a circumstance would be intolerable? Will Pyongyang be allowed to secure the
capability to produce a nuclear weapon a month for the better part of a year?
Is the North Korean leadership serious about its stated intention potentially
to transfer nuclear materials or weapons to third countries or groups? Does
Chinese leadership genuinely recognize the imminent danger confronting the international
community associated with the loss of most of its policy options (already very
limited) to harness and reverse North Korean nuclear capabilities and associated
proliferation activities? Will China act decisively, in this short window,
to head off the draconian choice between a de facto nuclearized North Korea
and high-risk military action by the United States and a coalition of the willing?
These are among the questions before us. Together, they unmistakably represent
both a momentous test of the U.S.-China relationship and China's leadership
role in the region and the world. Our Commission has never considered a set
of issues as defining as those we will discuss today. With that rather somber
introduction, I would like to turn the proceedings over to our hearing Co-Chairmen,
Commission Vice Chairman Dick D'Amato and Commissioner Robert Ellsworth.